We like to think that we have all the answers, but, in actuality, nothing is certain except for death, taxes, and having some foul-smelling flatulence after consuming dairy. The notion of predicting the outcome of an event is as likely as someone traveling to Las Vegas and cleaning out every casino for all they’ve got; it’s simply improbable. Be that as it may, when it comes to conjecturing the outcome of presidential elections, this is something that we enjoy getting involved in.
For any person, place, or thing that proudly identifies as an affiliate of the Democratic Party, the 2020 presidential election brings up the potential fear that President Donald Trump will be reelected, securing another four years of executive orders, harsh immigration reform, and too many tweets for any one man to handle. In 2008, when America endured the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, everyone looked for someone to blame and, for better or for worse, people chose President Barack Obama. Historically speaking, voters hold the president accountable for the state of our union and, based on the performance of the country around election season, an incumbent may secure their spot for reelection.
First of all, to predict that any candidate, Democrat or Republican, will win the election is like trying to call the winner of a marathon before the race has even begun. I’m well aware that excitement is brewing in advance of the Iowa Caucus, but we are at least one year away, maybe more from any major presidential event. Everyone needs to take a huge breath, perhaps a chill pill, and calm down.
Now that we’ve all collected ourselves, let’s continue. Over the course of Trump’s first two years in office, his approval ratings have been abysmally low. At his very best, per Vox’s statistics, Trump was seven points more unpopular than popular.
“Trump’s poll numbers are probably 20 points below where a president would typically be with consumer sentiment as high as it is now. So here, then, is what we can say: Judged on the economy, which is the traditional driver of presidential approval, Donald Trump’s poll numbers should be much, much higher than they are now. Far from finding a winning strategy, he seems to have found a losing one despite holding a winning hand…”
–Ezra Klein, Vox
To summarize Mr. Klein’s beautifully written words, if we solely based his chances for reelection based on the current state of the U.S. economy, then Clotho, Lachesis, and Atropos might tell us that we’d have four more years of Trump. With that said, President Trump has done a solid job of making sure that few people like him. Once glance at both his personal/presidential twitter accounts will show you that President Trump isn’t afraid of speaking his mind, even it his words insult millions of people; immigrants are his favorite group to target.
President Donald Trump’s reelection is uncertain, this much is true. Considering that Americans will know, relatively soon, whether the Trump Administration colluded with Russia to help then-candidate Donald Trump secure the election. I’m not a betting man, but if Special Counsel Robert Mueller proves, in his report, that Donald Trump did something wrong, it’s unlikely that he’ll win reelection.
When he ran in 2016, Trump had never held a position of political power. He was an entrepreneur, if you feel comfortable using that title, and had his own reality television program. No one could’ve guessed, back then, that he would announce plans to run for president, let alone beat out highly-qualified candidates in the end. It is for this reason, among many, that I will not rule out the chances of Trump’s reelection in 2020, purely because this man has defied logic before and could possibly do it again.
